Low-rise jeans might not be the only thing returning from the late 2000s.
The housing market in Dallas-Fort Worth is looking familiar–like 2008- familiar. Dallas and Collin counties saw closed home sales drop 37 percent in October compared to the same time last year. In Tarrant County, it was 32 percent, according to the latest figures from NTREIS based on Multiple Listing Services data.
The last time the Metroplex saw this big of a downturn, Lady Gaga was riding the success of her very first radio hit, “Just Dance.” Reportedly, the biggest year-over-year drop-off in closed sales between 2008 and 2009 was— peak to trough— 23 percent in Dallas County, 26 percent in Tarrant County and 10 percent in Collin County.
M&D Real Estate managing director Danny Perez (LinkedIn)
“It’s just crazy,” Danny Perez, managing director of DFW-based M&D Real Estate, told the Dallas Business Journal. “The numbers are worse than the 2008-2009 drops, which is where we saw the biggest drop in closed sales in the Great Recession. We’ve had a 37 percent drop in one year, so, we are seeing nearly double what we saw in the Great Recession.”
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The number of pending sales also foretells a very cold November. Pending sales set to close in November are down 44 percent year-over-year in Dallas County, 40 percent in Tarrant County, and 39 percent in Collin County.
At the same time, the average sale prices in the region starting to slip from month tomonth. Year-over-year, Dallas County is up 18 percent, Tarrant is up 15 percent and Collin County is up 9 percent. But the median home price went from $405,000 in August to $399,000 in September.
The prices are holding up better ” because people don’t have to sell–that’s the difference (between the current downturn and the Great Recession),” Perez said. “We’re not getting the new listings. Whereas before, we were getting a lot of inventory, new listings are down year-over-year. That’s what’s killing us on seeing a price correction.”
So to say that North Texas is reliving the Great Recession would be inaccurate. While the lack of sales today can be explained by the high prices driving away potential buyers, during the Great Recession, a big issue was the employment rates and the employment picture in Dallas-Fort Worth is far better than it was during that time. According to Perez, 298,000 new jobs opened since last year.
“That’s a huge difference maker,” he said.
— Maddy Sperling