What Trump, Adams, Cuomo Mean for NYC Real Estate

The political situation in New York City is beyond unusual. It’s unprecedented.

To summarize:

Mayor Eric Adams is about to be unindicted on orders from President Donald Trump, in exchange for Adams’ helping Trump carry out immigration actions.

Trump’s Department of Justice noted that it “reached this conclusion without assessing the strength of the evidence or the legal theories on which the case is based.” It directed the federal prosecutor in Manhattan to review the case for possible reinstatement after the November 2025 mayoral election.

That means Adams is essentially Trump’s puppet for the balance of the year. As if to make that clear, Adams has directed his staff not to criticize Trump or interfere with immigration enforcement.

Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo, now three years removed from the scandal that cost him the governorship he so coveted, is the current favorite to win the mayoral race.

Unlike Adams, Cuomo has yet to declare his candidacy, but he is expected to run. Given the current chaos and uncertainty, there will likely be no better opportunity for him to get back into politics, which he clearly wants to do.

Chaos and uncertainty are good for Cuomo, but bad for real estate. So is having a weak mayor. Adams’ approval ratings are horrendous, and he is seen as beholden to a president who is generally unpopular with New Yorkers and reviled by City Council members.

Even if the charges against Adams are dropped, he will have little political capital for the rest of this year, unless he somehow wins the Democratic primary in June. His relationship with the City Council appears beyond repair.

So, what’s next?

Adams’ corruption scandal compelled him to cut some cronies loose and cede more authority to competent aides such as Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer, NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch and City Planning Commissioner Dan Garodnick.

When Adams won the 2021 election, veterans of New York politics advised him to limit the number of deputy mayors and establish a clear chain of command. “He didn’t listen to any of that,” one insider said. “There’s a feeling that it’s late, but [real estate has] a lot more confidence about the team that’s in place now.”

That bodes well for real estate, although the undisciplined Adams could revert to bad habits if he starts feeling untouchable again.

In the mayoral race, the industry will support Cuomo, despite a rocky end to their previous relationship, for several reasons:

Before he was weakened by nursing home and book controversies, and ousted by a sexual harassment scandal, his tenure as governor was viewed as successful.
Cuomo won’t demonize the industry, unlike some far-left candidates and even standard progressives such as Scott Stringer, who in 2020 tried to coin the phrase “gentrification industrial complex.”
Real estate believes Cuomo can bring order, or at least a sense of order, to a city perceived as needing it.
Cuomo will accept campaign contributions from the industry. Donors feel they have agency, and can get access to elected officials and their administrations.
Cuomo likes to build things; consider the Second Avenue subway, Moynihan Train Hall, the LaGuardia Airport revamp, and the Mario M. Cuomo Bridge. Chances are he would push for more private housing development now that it has gained currency.

To be sure, Cuomo comes with a lot of negatives, beyond the baggage of his scandals (for which he has never accepted responsibility):

Early in his governorship he courted goodwill among state legislators, and later he became so feared that none would cross him, but by the end he was so reviled that nobody came to his aid. Many of those lawmakers still hold powerful positions — as does his former estranged lieutenant governor, Kathy Hochul, who inherited his seat. Much of what New York City real estate needs is controlled by Albany.

Although Cuomo did not populate his administration with self-serving, incompetent buddies as Adams did, he was a micromanager. His priorities got his attention and got done, but other matters ran into a second-floor bottleneck. Unlike Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who largely delegated except on issues important to him, Cuomo did not empower his commissioners to make decisions.

Cuomo started his governorship in 2011 as a pro-business fiscal conservative, but shifted with the political tides as Democrats took control of the state Senate in January 2019. That June, either unable or unwilling to stop a rent-law overhaul that has since cost landlords and lenders billions of dollars and eroded the city’s housing stock, he signed and celebrated the legislation. Would he, as mayor, advocate for amending it?

After an ill-fated attempt to defeat H. Carl McCall for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2002, Cuomo took few political risks. For example, he waited to join the 2010 race for governor until Gov. David Paterson opted out. That’s why Cuomo hasn’t declared for mayor yet. He was hoping to again be drafted to run, rather than challenge a Black incumbent.

Trump’s rescue of Adams throws a wrench into that plan, but it’s still hard to imagine Cuomo skipping the race.