Talk to brokers around the city, and there’s a sense that the expected fall frenzy was cut short by stubborn interest rates and election jitters.
And while the last few months haven’t resulted in a 2021-style boom, they’ve represented something perhaps just as revelatory: a return to normal.
Contracts in Manhattan and Brooklyn were up 43 percent in October, up to 1,336 from 940 last year, according to Miller Samuel’s report for Douglas Elliman.
In every month since July, contracts have been up at least 35 percent year-over-year. The bounce back from the nadir of 2023 means that while contracts aren’t breaking records, they are “the beginning of the return to more normalized activity,” said report author Jonathan Miller.
Manhattan notched 836 contracts in October, up 36 percent year-over-year, and slightly higher than the monthly average of 819 over the last seven months of 2019, according to Miller.
The steady uptick has apparently not been stymied by mortgage rates that ticked back up over the second half of September and October to end the month at 6.72 percent.
“The fact that contracts have jumped since July every month seems to be disconnected from the Fed,” Miller said.
Instead, he attributed the strong demand to the city being out of sync with the rest of the country following the pandemic — noting that New York’s buyers had the least amount of time to make deals, as compared with the rest of the country.
New York City didn’t experience a demand surge until after a Covid vaccine became widely available in early 2021; less than a year later, buyers were slammed with interest rate hikes.
“Essentially, the boom was interrupted,” Miller said. “One could argue that people were interrupted mid-purchase by this sudden change in market conditions with the steepest ascent in mortgage rates in five decades.”
Contract growth, listless listings
Contracts grew across nearly every property type in Manhattan and Brooklyn.
In Manhattan, co-op contracts dominated the low-end of the market, growing by 40 percent year-over-year to 281 from 200 for units priced under $1 million.
Condos led the luxury space on the island in terms of growth with 81 contracts signed over $4 million, an 84 percent increase from October of last year.
In Brooklyn, co-op contracts grew 63 percent, condo contracts grew 46 percent and one- to three-family home contracts grew 58 percent year-over-year.
Luxury townhouses contracts — deals for $2 million and up — doubled since last October, to 58.
As has been the case for many of the past few months, listings growth didn’t quite keep pace with demand.
Across Brooklyn and Manhattan, new listings remained essentially flat year-over-year with 1,964 properties hitting the market.
Condo listings were the only type to grow in any substantial way across the two boroughs, with new listings increasing 14 percent to 858 as part of the fall sales launch season for new development, mostly thanks to the Naftali Group. One Williamsburg Wharf, an 89-unit development, and 255 East 77th Street, a 62-unit project, both launched sales in the last 60 days.