Homebuyers hoping for clarity on the market post-election may not like the picture experts are now projecting.
Economists are raising forecasts around mortgage rates in the near-term future as a result of Donald Trump’s election and policy proposals, Bloomberg reported. Trump’s proposals include significant tariff and tax cuts, which could impact the economy and bring pain to potential buyers.
Redfin shifted its projected average mortgage rate in 2025 from 6.1 percent to 6.8 percent immediately following Trump’s victory. Chief economist Daryl Fairweather directly cited Trump’s election as a reason for the change, but pointed out it’s uncertain what the president-elect will actually enact when back in office.
Capital Economics also expects higher mortgage rates and a weakened recovery in home sales. Economist Thomas Ryan thinks mortgage rates around 7 percent are here to stay for the rest of the year and may not drop more than a quarter of a point by the end of next year.
Trump’s proposals include up to 20 percent tariffs on all imports and triple that on imports from China. Economists expect those costs to be passed on to consumers, potentially increasing inflation.
Tax cuts could also lower fiscal revenue and raise the national debt, which would lead to higher long-term interest rates.
The stock market surged in the immediate aftermath of the election, but that’s not indicative of where mortgage rates are headed. More instructive is the bond market, which has been much more subdued about how tariffs could elevate inflation once more; Barclays economists raised inflation projections for the next two years after the election.
Another consequence of Trump’s proposals could be a reduction in the construction workforce, as the president-elect has vowed mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Builders would inevitably slow down, strangling inventory and boosting home prices for what’s available, pricing out more buyers.
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