Risk of Floods, Fires No Threat To Migration

Effects of climate change, like increased increased risk of floods or fires, couldn’t keep Americans from flowing into at-risk areas.

Migration into the most flood-prone counties in the country increased by 103 percent from 2019 and 2020 to 2021 and 2022, according to an analysis by Redfin on migration data from the Census Bureau and climate-risk scores from First Street Foundation.

Roughly 384,000 more people moved in than out of the flood-prone areas between the two year-long periods, but it wasn’t the only significant migration to areas with major disaster risks. There was a 51 percent increase in net migration to the highest wildfire risk areas over the same periods and a 17 percent net migration jump in high heat risk counties.

The attraction of some of these disaster-prone areas is affordability, as they often sport a higher number of properties to buy or rent. This decade, 55 percent of the homes built in the country face a fire risk, while 45 percent face a drought risk.

Coastal areas and regions with low elevation have been previously identified as key parts of an estimated $34 billion worth of real estate that rising sea levels could fully or partially flood.

People sometimes also struggle to grasp what they can’t always see, the Redfin report noted, meaning the risk of a long-term loss isn’t likely to obscure a short-term win.

“It’s human nature to focus on current benefits, like waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run, like property damage or a decrease in property value,” said Redfin deputy chief economist Daryl Fairweather.

The largest net inflow of the 306 high-flood risk counties analyzed came in Lee County, Florida, an area that was leveled by Hurricane Ian in September — but most of the data comes from before the hurricane.

Insurance costs are one major deterrent for migration to places like Orleans Parish and Jefferson Parish, communities around New Orleans that are almost entirely flood-prone and witnessing insurance rates continue to rise two decades after Hurricane Katrina destroyed the area.

The largest net outflow among counties facing fire risks was in Butte County, California, which lost 17,000 people in the last two years. The county is home to Paradise, a town obliterated by the 2018 Camp Fire.